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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.